Nikon at PMA predictions

Here are my predictions for Nikon’s new product announcements at PMA in a few days. They are based speculation, rumours and logic only; I have no proof whatsoever. But still.


  • D3 — The long awaited replacement for the D2h/D2x line—up of professional cameras, set to compete against Canon’s new EOS-1D Mark III. Should be 10 mega—pixels, 10 FPS, 1.1x crop factor sensor and improvements in the AF engine.
  • D60 — This will fill the gap created by the D40 when it replaced the D50. The D40 doesn’t feature a body AF motor, so it wont auto—focus with many current and older AF-D type lenses. The D60 will feature the D40 body with a 10.2 mega—pixel sensor from the D200 and D80 with an AF sensor shoe—horned on. It’s feature set will include some other improvements but not enough to compete with the D80.
  • D200s — The D200 has been a huge success for Nikon, beating Canon’s 30D on price, features and sales. An upgrade to the D200 to feature the sensor and AF system from the defunct D2x would be a very welcome addition and would tempt many nature and sports photographers to upgrade just for the D2x’s excellent AF system.


The majority of the new lens announcements will be for older designs to be upgraded with AF-S and VR. I predict that some, if not all of the following lenses will receive that treatment:

  • 28mm f/1.4 AF-S
  • 50mm f/1.4 AF-S VR
  • 80-400mm f/4.5-5.6 AF-S VR
  • 85mm f/1.4 AF-S VR
  • 300mm f/4 AF-S VR
  • 400mm f/2.8 AF-S VR
  • 500mm f/4 AF-S VR
  • 600mm f/4 AF-S VR

There will be some new lenses to fill gaps currently being filled by their competitors (Sigma et al):

  • 17-70mm f/2.8 AF-S VR DX
  • 20mm f/1.4 AF-S
  • 28-105mm f/2.8 AF-S VR
  • 30mm f/1.4 AF-S VR DX
  • 100-300mm f/4 AF-S VR
  • 400mm f/5.6 AF-S VR
  • 400-600mm f/5.6 AF-S VR

And finally if Nikon feel very generous and want to bring their budget/consumer lenses into the modern era:

  • 18-70mm f/3.5-4.5 AF-S VR
  • 50mm f/1.8 AF-S VR
  • 85mm f/1.8 AF-S VR

Honestly, I’d be surprised if even 20% of what I predicted gets released, and I certainly don’t hope for Nikon to replace all their lenses with updated versions in one go, but hopefully before the next PMA the majority will be on their way out.

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